---------------------------------------------------------------------------- The Caribbean Hurricane Page Updates [IMG: Luis; Credit: Norm Nelson, Bermuda Biological Station for Research - http://www.bbsr.edu/Weather/] from the Islands - - St.Thomas (USVI) - - ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - PRESS RELEASE FOR USVI AND JOSE * From: "USVI-INFO Webmaster" * Date: Thu, 21 Oct 1999 20:53:52 -0300 I just posted the press release concerning the US Virgin Islands and Hurricane Jose on the US Virgin Islands Information Guide. You can read it at: http://www.usvi-info.com/infousvi/pr991021-jose.html ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - (no subject) * From: Wen * Date: Thu, 21 Oct 1999 16:12:18 -0300 Looks pretty good over here, (Northside, overlooking Magen's) from what I have seen. I haven't really been out and about much, but it looks like a giant salad has been dumped on my driveway. Reports are much the same all over the island. A little messy, but no real damage. Shutters are still up, I suppose the Landlord is waiting for word on the next wave. UG! Two in a week? I'd like to think it's not possible! Anyway, the power is still out and the downstairs neighbors are having a party on the porch. Not much else to do, really. I've got about an hour of power left to the computer, I've finished my book, and am now just waiting, much like everyone else. Looks like Pizza Hut tonite if the power comes back! ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - St. Thomas 14:00... * From: Herman van der Heide * Date: Thu, 21 Oct 1999 14:43:16 -0400 .... 'Jose' moving away from the islands.� Heavier winds after experiencing the eye this morning. Local radio reports strong gusty winds on the North. West and East side of the island. Curfew lifted as of 10:00 this morning. Highest recorded wind gust here at the apartment today:�� 40 mph at 12:45 Apartment on Scott Free, halfway up the mountain at 800 ft. altitude. Spoke with friends on Water Island who mentioned that a 65 mph windgust was recorded around 12:15. Barometer:�� 1000.6 mb (29.56 in.) Airport reopened this morning for a few hours but closed again due to the strengthening westerly winds. Power not yet back here as the feeder seems to have some problems.� Extension cord to pole too short now??? Seas in Elephant Bay very rough and still building.� Yachts out at anchor riding rough, lot of pitching, rolling and yawing. Very heavy on anchor / mooring gear. Waiting for WAPA to turn power back on again to the feeder to the apartment. Using (small) generator power now and will give more detailed report later. Tropical wave behind 'Jose' becoming MUCH better organized due to 'Jose's' weakening.� Catch 22 here because the hurricane's weakening caused minimal damage to the USVI, but allowed the wave to become better organized.� Had the hurricane hit with more force, the resulting outflow of the stronger hurricane would have inhibited more the growing of the wave. Wave was at 11:00 this morning 550 miles East of the Leeward Islands. Oh well.� Might as well leave the shutters up for awhile. "Spare" NOT happy with noise of the wind at all, to say the least.� Must bring back unpleasant / scary memories of hurricane 'Marilyn' in 1995. Herman � ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - WINDY WINDY * From: "Linda Robinson Barr" * Date: Thu, 21 Oct 1999 11:03:48 -0300 well, they may have downgraded, they may have lifted the curfew, but as far as Brewers Bay and the airport vicinity are concerned it's hurricane force winds at the moment. Blowing IN from the north so this must be the tail? Linda Robinson Barr St. Thomas VI 00802 ICQ 705627 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - STT OK * From: Max Schanfarber * Date: Thu, 21 Oct 1999 08:42:03 -0400 ST. THOMAS IS OK!!! We've been blessed with another near miss. No damage to speak of. I lost power at 5:30 AM and it came back on in an hour or so. We are still under curfew till 1:00 PM because there may be gusts of about 40 mph. The hurricane warning has been downgraded to a tropical storm warning. Don't worry BIG DAVE, enjoy the wedding, your house is fine. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Beautyful Eye... * From: Herman van der Heide * Date: Thu, 21 Oct 1999 08:35:11 -0400 ... Like to share the following web address with all: http://www.intellicast.com/LocalWeather/World/Caribbean/PuertoRico/SanJuan/BaseReflectivity/ It shows the, not that well defined, eye right over the Virgin Islands. Local Gov. announces on radio that shelters on St. Croix will be closed this morning at 09:00. The shelters on St. Thomas will be closed after the curfew is lifted. This will happen at 13:00.� He thanked the residents for being "good kids" for staying off the streets during the curfew. Temp:�� 77.2 F Wind:�� West - 5 mph Barometer:�� 997.9 mb (29.47 in.) Waiting for the power to come back on.� Phone line still working. Herman ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Amazing!!!!!!.... * From: Herman van der Heide * Date: Thu, 21 Oct 1999 08:13:52 -0400 ... Not a breath of wind outside!!!!!!!!!!! Very low clouds (reaching the ground) and NO visibility! Barometer is 997.8 (29.47 inches). Wow. This is the way to go through a hurricane. Battery not that high.� Will recharge later. Again, AMAZING!! Herman ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Virgin Islands Spared Wrath of Hurricane Jose * From: "The Investigating Reporter" * Date: Thu, 21 Oct 1999 07:20:15 -0300 Col. Walker 7AM Oct. 21,1999 St. Thomas,USVI ...Hurricane Jose has chosen to spare the Virgin Islands and to move past the Territory early this morning . the island of St.Croix reported winds of approximately 22 mph , St. Thomas reported gusts of 45mi and some gust reported on St.John of 65 mi. ., However Hurricane Jose is presently of 30 mi. ENE of St.Thomas with of 75 mi. . the hurricane warning is now lifted and tropical storm warning now in effect for the virgin Islands . It is anticipated that Jose would be competety out of the territory by 11am . WE are fortunate that no rain has been reported at the tail end of the hurricane , however tides will be higher than n normal and accompany with large and dangerous battering waves . Coastal flooding is expect in low lying g areas . No damaged to individuals or property has been reported . Minimal reports of fallen branches and flooding were across the territory. Good planning and good attitude of the citizens resulted in a calm and smooth operation during the course of Jose. Power remained on except for minor interruption on the island of St.Croix ,but was quickly restored by the hard working men and women of Virgin Island Water and Authority . We are presently awaiting word from the Governor as to status of lifting of curfew and the event to the day relative to government operations ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - jose ....whew! * From: "james jordan" * Date: Thu, 21 Oct 1999 04:17:30 PDT whew!...escaped again power just came back on 6:30am out since3:00am. all quiet! winds calm no rain seas look calm on stt southside...no damage visible from here havent been out on the roads yet...latest cords: 18.5n 64.5w downgraded to cat one..80mph we should still get some rain doppler radar shows its on the way lee carle on the radio ..curfew still on? gov to speak soon... abc reports jose passe over virgin gorda. now north of us ups keeps beeping so the power is still not stable...addie ottley with a calayspo version of MY GOD TO ME HOW GREAT THOU ART...how approprate...by king abstinate god blessed us huck st thomas frenchmans bay http://members.theglobe.com/huckphotovi e mail at [email protected] ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Windy in St. Thomas... * From: Herman van der Heide * Date: Thu, 21 Oct 1999 04:24:27 -0400 ... Wind has slowly been picking up since an hour ago (02:30). Highest recorded windgust here at the apartment was 31 mph at 02:50. That must mean that the sustained winds on the North side of the island must be higher since this house is located half way up the mountain on the South side and is thus in the "lee".� The wind is audible outside above the house in the trees and vegetation. Rain off and on.� Measured 0.08 inches of rain since midnight.� Not that much yet. Pressure has been dropping steadily (and sharply) these last hours.� Currently it's 1002.7 (29.61) (03:40) and still dropping. Phone still working and even the power is still on (thank you gods). �� ----------------------- According to the 02:00 intermediate advisory: "AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST CROIX IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS." Uhoh, that nearly looks like 'Jose' is going to be coming quite close to St. Thomas.� The dropping barometer is a good indicator of that; 1002.1 mb (29.59) now (04:00). Winds quiet at this moment.� Wonder what the rest of the island is like.� One of the local radio stations has an "Art Bell" like program on the air. All real reporters must be in bed.� Or still boarding up their house.� One of them must live in the neighborhood then, judging from the hammering noises. Just heard an add on how to loose weight in no time with this magical product.� Thank goodness, that question has kept me up all night!� Can finally go the sleep with a peaceful mind!!. Birds still chirping away in the trees (?) during the lulls.� Wonder what they have to say.� Bet they never heard the add. Pressure now 1001.8 mb (29.58) now (04:12). Winds back again. UPS klicking in and out.� Lights not yet flickering in the house. Better send this before the power goes out all together!! Herman ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - jose from stt * From: "james jordan" * Date: Wed, 20 Oct 1999 22:25:32 PDT hi power still on..conection alive..its 1am. quiet here steady rain but not like this afternoon navy operations cords 17.6n 62.7w at midnite some gusts but nothing yet went out to check the pool not much acumulation very premitive rain guage 1-2ft surf at morningstar beach lite up by lights from frenchmans reef hotel lighthouse on buck island still blinking now its waiting time huck st thomas frenchmans bay ps gert iam originaly from carmel calif, been here 13yrs ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com * Attachment: jose.bmp ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - It's Dark... * From: "Linda Robinson Barr" * Date: Wed, 20 Oct 1999 22:29:42 -0300 Living right next to the runway here in St. Thomas is always interesting....moreso when the activity increase then suddenly decreases for an impending storm. Now is the eerie time. NO lights on the runway. Empty empty. Brewers Bay is calm at the moment. The Willie Mac II has gone to a hurricane hole as have the 2 sailboats who had JUST come back a few days ago thinking the coast was clear! We're off to put the three year old to bed and then final preparations then maybe a quiet night for sleep before the early morning onslaught. Stay safe, stay dry! Linda Robinson Barr St. Thomas VI 00802 ICQ 705627 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Message from St. Thomas... * From: Herman van der Heide * Date: Wed, 20 Oct 1999 21:21:25 -0400 ... 20:34 LT: All quiet on the St. Thomian front. Occasional rain shower passing through.� Once and awhile heavy rain but more often than not a steady rain. Drove over to the North side of the island this afternoon (17:00).� Was surprised to notice the lack of (strong) winds and the total absence of heavy surf.� Must have picked the wrong time obviously (storm still too far away and waves blocked by the islands to our East!).� Clouds, however, very low and ominous.� Lots more rain on the way. Many houses completely boarded up.� One (private?) aircraft left on the north ramp of the airport.� Hope it has left by now. 20:00 intermediate advisory has the center slightly West of the 17:00 forecast track!!!� Another wobble????� The average of 'Jose's' zigzags today have been generally between WNW and NW. Local hurricane statement from Puerto Rico (http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/pr/allwarnings.html) as of 17:25 mentions the strong possibility of the tropical storm force winds (with associated hurricane force gusts) starting in St. Thomas around 03:00 tonight and lasting until 15:00 tomorrow afternoon. Had only boarded up one big window today but decided this evening to board up a second big window (out of three).� Leave the third one open so the breeze can blow through the house. Current weather in St.Thomas (on South side, overlooking Crown Bay Marina and Water Island): (Info from weather instruments on the roof; no info available from STT airport as it closed at 17:00 LT ) Wind:�� SE - 10 kts. (135 @ 10) Highest windgust:�� 25 mph @ 19:55 Barometer:�� 1009.3 mb (29.80 in.) - has been dropping steadily during the afternoon hours but now shows the daily �� ritual of slowly climbing again.� This rise should stop around 22:00 as the �� barometer begins it's second fall of the day again. Sun:�� Has become the moon and is once and awhile visible between passing showers though high clouds �� Otherwise hidden behind cloud cover.� When visible, the clouds are seen racing across the moon. Temp:�� 75.0 F Wind Chill:�� 74.0 F Today's Rain:�� 0.79 in. Clouds:�� Broken / Scattered / Overcast "Spare" the Cat:�� Sleeping � Very curious to see the 23:00 forecast track and pressure. Power company apparently is turning off the lights around 22:00 tonight.� Curfew in effect and have never seen or heard St. Thomas sooo quiet.� No car noises, no boom boxes; just the wind rustling through the trees and vegetation, and the frogs ("pas de offense") letting each other know they enjoy the rain..� Once and awhile the rain even filters these sounds out. Wind a little gusty at times but still mainly ahead of the rains. Gert, if you're 'listening'; looking forward to your second gedeelte of your rijmpje. Herman [Image] � ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Update * From: "The Investigating Reporter" * Date: Wed, 20 Oct 1999 16:52:32 -0300 Here on St. Thomas advisories have been slow ,today as the Government is being very cautious..the curfew was set back and may be dropped,but VITEMA has told me today that Jose wobbled so much this morning ..it has been wait and see..we have had some very heavy rain especially around 2:30..on west end of St. Thomas..I am planning on going to VITEMA before 6..now reporting that it is expected to be about 50 MI NE at 8am tomorrow and to expect flooding tonight-St. Croix 70mi NE between 2 and 3 AM..starting to rain again as I listen to Col. Walker ..Jose may be moving westerly again..Hope Gert and everyone okay .time to close up here and move..update later we will report on www.onepaper.com/reporter through out the night Donna ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - jose.....no way jose! * From: "james jordan" * Date: Wed, 20 Oct 1999 12:59:25 PDT hello from the beautiful tropics?? still only intermitent heavy rain and wind gusts...although it just started to pour! no more windows to look out.windows are boarded up as a precaution. just the open front door which is leaking rainwater. oh well its only water there will be plenty more.squall this morning about 10:00am ast added 2" inches to the pool. had to dump water from it ...its so precious what a shame latest updates put jose 90 miles se st martin 17.2n 62.0w 100-110 mph cat 2 storm.. still passing north of us on st thomas but it is a wobbling system should pass just 35 or so miles north to close for confort.herman has it right. tracks just give us a guide the eye vasicilateslike a spinning top it takes the path of least resistance.winds are approaching now!really blowing outside... have to go take some pics..will post soon. other island pic s at http://members.theglobe.com/huckphotovi st thomas discussion now on front page.. gov on radio curfew changed from3pm to 6pm track shift to west god bless huck st thomas frenchmans bay 4pm ast ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Patience is a Virtue... * From: Herman van der Heide * Date: Wed, 20 Oct 1999 15:33:28 -0400 ... The "noise" of the few people that are still 'rushing' their hurricane preparations to completion seems to be drowned out by the rhythm of the drumming fingers from those that are waiting out the rest of the coming day and night.� Patience is the name of the game now. Following "The Weather Channel's" 11:00 update, the general consensus among the left-over community in Crown Bay Marina seems to be that we have "dodged the bullet" and that all will be well.� If the storm follows the 11:00 forecast track, the predicted winds in St. Thomas will be of the 40 kts caliber tomorrow morning (10/21) around 04:00 / 05:00; winds of tropical storm force strength. However, since the storm only has to deviate a minor bit or loose another few millibars along the way, there is still a real chance that hurricane force winds will make an unwelcome visit to the VI.� The odds are definitely NOT that favorable, but.... one never knows. It would be nice if 'Jose' could make up it's mind and stick with it's long-term goals.� Every 10 year old (well, at least in my days) can tell you that's it is rather useless to wander around aimlessly without a cause.� Plus, it's not polite to let your neighbors in doubt whether you're coming over for a visit or just breeze by. Wind on the leeward (S) side of the mountain is just a breeze.� When the sun does come out, the humidity let's itself be felt and the atmosphere feels very muggy.� Guess the north side of the island has a comfortable 'breeze' out of the E - NE.� Will go there this afternoon and check it out. Another rain squall is coming through St. Thomas as of this writing (14:35 LT).� Visibility down to a few hundred feet, rain seems to be coming from a slight southerly direction.� Rain stopped again at 14:50.� Result: 0.23 inches. Current weather in St. Thomas (on South side, overlooking Crown Bay Marina and Water Island): (Info from STT airport 17:47 GMT "ATIS" information "Romeo" and weather instruments on the roof) Wind:�� Southeast - 8 kts. (100 @ 13) Visibility:�� 10 miles (definitely much less in squalls and rain showers!) Barometer:�� 1009.4 mb (29.80 in.) - has been dropping steadily over the last couple of hours. Sun:�� Hidden behind cloud cover Temp:�� 78.9 F Wind Chill:�� 79 F Birds:�� Preparing nests for gusty winds Today's measured Rain: 0.66 in. (16.8 mm) Clouds:�� Broken "Spare" the Cat:�� Washing / sleeping / advising birds on local building code - The airport will close at 17:00 LT!!! - Crown Bay Marina completely empty now. - 23 (?!) yachts left in Elephant Bay (outside CBM). - The temporary floating ferry dock (hurricane 'Georges' destroyed the solid one) at Water Island has been taken out of the �� water; last ferry run was at 12:00 (noon). - (Desolate) Yacht Haven Marina empty, except for one derelict motor boat. - 15 (?!) yachts left in Long Bay.� Among them "Leyland Sneed", "Wild Thing" and "La Concha". - Late VI America's Cup Challenge boat "Stars and Stripes" moored at Haulover yard aside sunken off dry dock.� Tall mast �� standing proud again after being stepped only last week. Had dinghy hauled out this morning in CBM and helped a friend move his yacht.� All boaters (finally) seem to be knowledgeable enough to have opted for more secure anchorages / bays / harbours.� Well, at least the ones that are not "Pharmaceutically Challenged". Herman [Image] � ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - St. Thomas * From: Gert van Dijken * Date: Wed, 20 Oct 1999 15:05:54 -0400 (EDT) Date: Wed, 20 Oct 1999 14:54:13 -0300 From: Wen Subject: St. Thomas Here is my before note: Twas the Night of Jose ....And across the whole islan', every creature was haulin'; boardin;' and buyin'.... And I in my wait line and Jim outta gas had hurried to town to make a last pass when out on the streets there came a soft patter the rain had begun and rose to a chatter In the harbour the waves all flowed the wrong way I've heard tell the tale this means it's the day... ..........to be continued......... Hi All! Well, as of last nite, it's an official warning. After a ghastly day yesterday, prepping Frenchman's Reef, I hit 'hurricane panic" traffic. (For those who haven't done this, it's like rush hour, except louder and longer and sitting absolutely STILL for 15 minutes at a time instead of five.) There were some lines, down our very narrow roads, where the cars no longer fit in the waiting line at gas stations, and store entrances and banks. Cars were parked at crazy angles, blocking entrances, turning lanes and other cars. (Not that this is unusual, it's just that it was over the top even for St. Thomas!) By 7pm my grocery store and both Kmarts were out of water. (I didn't even try any others at that point.) The shelves were stripped of canned goods, juice, pretty much everything crucial. And, for those of you who lived through it with me last year, I didn't get my Pizza Hut this time either!!! I really worry about other folks on the island who may be in worse circumstances and not have the resources that I do. I'm as ready as I'm gonna be, but some of those souls out there aren't. My friend Jim called to offer his help in whatever and asked that I stay by the phone since he didn't know if he was going to make it into the line at the gas station before he ran out. I've been hearing stories like that all day. A lot of really sensible people got caught unaware. I am reminded of some of my brother's stories about Marilyn coming out of the blue as a "not too tough storm," that no one was quite ready for. I certainly hope we don't have a repeat of that, though the similarities in Jose's track to that of Marilyn's and Hugo's are a bit too close for me. Thank the Powers that BE that we have each other on this rock. Folks do appear to be sticking together. And they ARE taking precautions and making great progress. Things were looking pretty buttoned up on my way home today at 1:30 or so. I haven't seen tempers flaring at all, rather a spirit of quiet cooperation. There is determination mixed with the fear. There is excitement in the small children as they react to the emotion in the air. There is an eerie quiet to all the hustle and bustle as families are gathering in. There is extra salt in the wind, as Jose' comes our way. If I take no other memory with me from this special place, let it be the attitude of the people in times of trouble. The daily bickering seems to have vanished, and folks are a neighborhood on a tiny rock in the middle of the ocean. Sometimes, it takes a hurricane to remind us that we are all family. And, all of you, like many other families across the world, are praying for a good hard tropical rain and not another devastation. So, with that kind of pull, I know we'll be ok. and that I'll be writing to you tonight to report, like last year, that the winds are howling and maybe even that it's raining UP again! But come the morning, we will find that we have been, lucky, or blessed, and can turn our prayers and attention to those ahead of us in the path, and our help to those behind. "Think North" is coming through my e-mail alot! And, as you know, phone lines could be down for a bit. We'll see if AT&T learned anything, and if the new buried cables are a help! WAPA isn't planning to cut power until 10pm, and I hear rumors of little or no curfew tomorrow. If, as we all think, Jose' turns out to be no big deal, just REALLY wet, I'll drop you a line on Thursday or Friday. Otherwise, I'll write as soon as a line opens. Once again, I am safe and holed up with my computer, a good book and a lot of candles. I hope your world is safe as well. Love and Light and Laughter, Wen PS....Guess I'm just in time for something....it's not even raining (wind isn't THAT bad!, but the power has gone out. Practice run?! Haha, yup. I just heard the generators kick in all over Hull Bay Road. 'Tis STILL the season! ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - St. Thomas status * From: "Linda Robinson Barr" * Date: Wed, 20 Oct 1999 14:06:47 -0300 Hello all. The Univ of the VI had us all prepare our offices then leave by noon today. Right now, it's a nice, albeit cloudy, day out. We have had a couple of squalls, but nothing that kept up for very long. Right now, the forecast calls for us to catch the southern part of Jose. However, JOse has been zigzagging and we could still get a direct hit. It seems it's supposed to get here tonight. I'll try to post again before they shut down power here. Stay safe! Stay dry! Linda Robinson Barr St. Thomas VI 00802 ICQ 705627 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - St. Thomas... * From: Herman van der Heide * Date: Wed, 20 Oct 1999 07:17:56 -0400 ... "Calm before the storm might" might be a minor misnomer as the 05:00 advisory has 'Jose' moving on a slightly more northerly track. On this trajectory, St. Martin will bear the brunt of 'Jose' and the CPA (closest point of approach) the storm will get to St. Thomas is 62 nm; showing maximum sustained winds of 46 kts. effecting the VI. Local radio caution listeners NOT to let their guard down, even though this might feel like the hurricane 'Luis' scenario in 1995 where the VI was threatened with a direct hit and the storm veered away at the last moment. Have decided not to take down the rain gauge and to leave my weather instruments up on the roof. Weather in St. Thomas as of 06:55: (on the south side of the island, overlooking Crown Bay Marina and Water Island) Wind:�� East - 8 kts. (080 @ 8) Barometer:�� 1010.8 mb (29.85 in.) Sun:�� Rising in the East Temp:�� 76.2 F Wind Chill:�� 76 F Birds:�� Chirping in trees Overnight Rain:�� 0.16 in. Clouds:�� 2,000 ft. broken ceiling (STT airport 06:47 ATIS information "Juliette") Cat:�� Asleep Crown Bay Marina empty except for Jerry Immell's motor yacht.� He'll be leaving this morning. 21 yachts left in Elephant Bay (outside CBM). (Desolate) Yacht Haven Marina empty. 12 yachts left in Long Bay. After breakfast, will have dinghy lifted out of the water. Herman ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - jose * From: "james jordan" * Date: Wed, 20 Oct 1999 00:05:06 PDT well st thomas is experencing the calm before the storm! every one at work was edgy..lines at gas pumpsand groc stores my shutters are up!..some reports of phone line problems..long distance lines are clogged with people calling home...i am not dropping my connection i hope..st john resorts have sent their guests to frenchmans reef hotel on st thomas..it is a bunker locals always head there to stay during the duration of the storm but it is 100% full tonite..getting very brezzy ..gusts to 25-35 mph stars are out and half moon is setting..three boats leaving yacht haven marina 12:30 am look like they are heading east... to safe haven will keep you posted as long as server and phone lines survive have lot of film photos will follow..keep up on latest weather from my site at http://members.theglobe.com/huckphotovi noaa, naval operations ..the best,and of course the weather channel or e mail at [email protected] huckphotovi pray for us huck ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Island Life... * From: Herman van der Heide * Date: Wed, 20 Oct 1999 00:36:37 -0400 ... As of 23:00 (LT) this evening, hurricane 'Jose' is forecast to track directly over the island of St. John (USVI) with the center passing over, at or around, 07:00 GMT (03:00 LT) on Thursday morning. Winds now 70 kts. and pressure down to 986 mb!!� "Jose' IS strengthening!� Wonder what's going to happen as the storm crosses over into the warmer caribbean waters!?! - Many times people seem to focus purely on the center of the storm or the narrow path of the forecast track, the narrow line that marks the track. NOT to be confused with the cone that shows the forecast error the NHC builds into their advisories, as shown on 'The Weather Channel'! However, the storm encompasses quite a significant area and even though the hurricane force winds might by-pass an island, the associated rains in these tropical systems can still cause significant havoc ('Floyd' + NC = Misery). Being able to look at the swath path of the wind field that 'Jose' creates, is an indication of the importance of looking at the overall picture of the storm.� PC Weather's (http://www.pcwp.com/) professional hurricane tracking program ("EM/Pro") has the capability to see this swath path in a very graphic format. Looking at the East Caribbean satellite photo (http://www.upr.clu.edu/nws/satrad.html), the storm already makes it's mark on the region. Got a call from local friends this evening who wanted to know if the storm was going to go over Vieques, Culebra, St. Thomas or St. John.� Told them that it doesn't really matter somehow which island the storm will pass over since, one way or the other, it's going to be stormy. Granted, the Right-Forward-Quadrant (many times erroneously called the NE quadrant) packs a meaner punch than the Left-Forward-Quadrant.� It could make the difference between sensing 87 mph or 113 mph in a 100 mph storm due to the added (or subtracted) forward speed of the storm.� Case in point would be Hurricane 'Mitch' who danced nearly off the compass rose in the West Caribbean. Lost power for 25 minutes this evening while the rest of the island was nicely lit up.� Local power company employee must have tripped over the extension cord to our pole.� Practice dry run???� Rain??? "Tropical Shipping" still hard at work (un-?) loading one of their cargo ships.� Sounds of the cranes clearly audible here at the apartment on the hill. Local radio announced all schools will be closed tomorrow as will the government offices.� With the exception of "essential workers".� Does that mean the non-essential people don't work???? Also, a curfew will be in effect for all the VI starting at 15:00 (LT) tomorrow.� Let's hope there'll be less looting this time around. Herman ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Natural Order * From: "The Investigating Reporter" * Date: Wed, 20 Oct 1999 00:21:41 -0300 Hi Gert, At the present time we are expecting Hurricane Jose to impact the Territory by 8:00 PM tomorrow evening with winds of approximately 100 mph and gust of 120 mph. It is anticipated that all islands in the Territory will be impacted. Since hurricane force winds extend out 25 miles and tropical storm winds extend out 100 miles, it seems definite that Jose will either pass directly over St. Croix or between St. Croix and St. Thomas at the time indicated.We are expecting tropical force winds by 3PM. Honorable Governor Charles W. Turnbull was at the St. Thomas Emergency Service Coordinators meeting and he announced at that time the closing of schools and of government offices with the exception of essential personnel. VITEMA is requesting all residents to continue preparing for Jose and is asking that residents stay off the roads especially at the time the tropical storm force winds begin to intensify. The Governor has issued a curfew commencing at 3:00 PM October 20, 1999. We are asking that our residents comply with this curfew.Red Cross will open shelters in the morning and FEMA is arriving on the Islands now..VITEMA is posting directly with us at www.onepaper.com/reporter and I will work out of their offices if I lose phone or power..the power went out tonight a couple times while WAPA was testing..calm here now, but we have had a lot of rain today.Stay safe everyone..'.In the natural order there are excesses floods and droughts,violent storms and doldrums.But everything returns to normal." Donna ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Jose * From: "John T. Dungan" * Date: Tue, 19 Oct 1999 23:49:48 -0500 the rains have started and the wind is starting to pick up. It is now 11:48 pm on the Island of St.thomas and Hurricane prperation is being ruched to completion. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - History repeated?????... * From: Herman van der Heide * Date: Tue, 19 Oct 1999 18:53:25 -0400 ... Hurricane 'Jose' will hit the Virgin Islands on Wednesday night / Thursday morning.� Maybe not a direct hit of the eye, but hurricane force winds will be felt among the islands.� Saving grace might be that, as of this moment, the hurricane force winds "only" extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outwards up to 115 miles from the center. As of 17:00 this afternoon, the NHC forecast track has the hurricane passing the NE'rn tip of St. Croix, then veer slightly WNW to move between Vieques and Culebra on a course to further torment the NE coast of Puerto Rico. Nothing in the 17:00 advisory package gives any indication of the storm veering off at the last minute.� A little more strengthening and it will be 'Jose' who controls the East Caribbean weather instead of the other way around!! Another frightening scenario is being played out right behind 'Jose', where a strong tropical wave keeps getting better organized and now has the potential to become a Tropical Depression, as early as, tonight or tomorrow (Wednesday)!!!!! �� ------------------- Weather rather calm as of this writing (18:00 LT) with a slight breeze out of the E - NE (on the South side of the island), 60% cloud coverage and a slowly dropping barometer (29.88 in. or 1011.7 mb.).� Some heavy rain earlier this afternoon as squalls passed from ENE to W over the island.� Measured amount of rainfall at the house this afternoon was 0.25 inch.� Not too much yet, but the ground is already quite saturated and can not sustain any heavy rainfall for a prolonged period of time. Hurricane shopping completed this morning.� Shops weren't that busy yet.� However, that soon changed as many businesses let out their employees early so they can prepare for the coming storm.� Lines at the gas stations this afternoon.� Have not seen any scenes like in the mainland US where pandemonium can rule in the time before a hurricane hits an area. Crown Bay Marina slowly emptied out this afternoon with yachts leaving for either Culebra, Vieques, Puerto Rico or designated 'Hurricane Holes".� About 10 (ten) yachts are still anchored / moored outside CBM in Elephant Bay.� Some yachts are still in the process of preparing to leave for Culebra and plan to leave at first light tomorrow morning. One yacht ("Gannett") just returned from Venezuela and got hit by lightning along the way.� Next was that the engine developed a problem and on top of that, the 'Gib' sail became inoperable.� They are trying to get into 'Flamingo Bay' on Water Island at high tide, since this is the best place they can go to at this moment.� Had my boat anchored there during 1995's busy hurricane season and managed to survive 'Marilyn's' onslaught with not too much damage. Another (motor) yacht ("Fun Ticket") left CBM this afternoon and picked up a mooring in Elephant Bay; apparently to ride out the coming storm. Those staying behind in the Bay better have good ground tackle and their 'Good-Luck-Charms" sufficiently charged, for they will need it when staying out at anchor during hurricane conditions. The Long Bay area outside of (desolate) Yacht Haven Marina is quite empty now. All that's left is waiting for the arrival of the first gusts and a more solid cloud cover announcing the arrival of the vicious maelstrom surrounding the eye. Herman � ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Update * From: "The Investigating Reporter" * Date: Tue, 19 Oct 1999 13:48:25 -0300 An Emergency meeting is being held on St. Thomas- and St. John at The Vitema Offices at 2 PM Today October 19th.An additional Emergency Worker meeting will be held on St. Croix this evening at 6 PM at the St. Croix VITEMA Office where emergency plans and announcements will be made to weather on not the Emergency Worker Operations will go into effect on a 24 Hour Schedule Basis. ..Crown Bay Marina empty..I talked to Atlantis Submarine worker very briefly as they were busy making preparation..people are getting very serious here this morning..I met a lady from The Moravian Church ,wish I knew her name ,that gave lots of cooked food to a homeless shelter..thanks...great to see people thinking of others..it is raining hard here now, guess I had better get my decks clear when it stops..Donna ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - hurricane jose... * From: "huck jordan" * Date: Tue, 19 Oct 1999 01:50:58 -0300 hello from st thomas � not to much concern yet?!! will keep watching closely. i am situated above frenchmans reef hotel with a 180 degree view of buck island st croix and puerto rico.will keep you up dated in the days to come.i have a link to your site on my caribbean news page.my site is located at http://members.theglobe.com/huckphotovi check it out. i am photographer specializing in sail racing,landscapes,and digital imaging � grew up in carmel calif studied with ansel adams in yosemite..thus the yosemite page..living st thomas for since traveled the caribbean the last thirteen years..saw every hurricane since hugo.. here are some pics of marilyn..lots of fair weather shots on my pages all original photos shot during the last 13 years... site main page has links to the best weather reporting i ve found the best is naval operations norfork va....no fluff here!! noaa also has good sat images but no cordinates weather channel has san juan radar images..i use for daily forcasts..being in the hotel restaurant industry..got to pay the bills.. any one seeing this may use these images for free. just provide a link to my page. or e mail at [email protected] � the music never stops.....going where the climate suits my clothes....j.g. � huck � * Attachment: marilyn12.JPG ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Update * From: "The Investigating Reporter" * Date: Tue, 19 Oct 1999 10:00:14 -0300 Yesterday was VI Thanksgiving Day and we did have much to be thankful for..today we are busy preparing for JOSE, I just talked to Jackie Hellinger and the Director at VITEMA and she is sending me an update for the USVI ...I will be posting these at www.onepaper.com/reporter..we have a direct link with VITEMA..that will continue ...I am waiting for reports now from our boating community and will post soon..more later..Donna. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - TS Jose * From: "DAVID MCDERMOTT" * Date: Mon, 18 Oct 1999 23:59:35 -0300 Jose seems to be making a beeline on a path which would take it right between St. Thomas and Puerto Rico. Not to mention over the island of St. Croix. Regardless, it will produce large amounts of rain and windy conditions due to it's large diameter unless it takes a massive northern turn. Possible, but not likely. There still seems to be complacency here; must be due to the government "holiday". Hurricane Thanksgiving Day! A little early I'd say. Also as the previous correspondent noted. Skies are partly cloudy and Doppler doesn't show much yet. But the water vapor shows encroaching moisture and a lot of it. We've been lucky so far. I hope it stays that way. Dave ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - All's NOT well on the SE'rn Front... * From: Herman van der Heide * Date: Mon, 18 Oct 1999 15:29:36 -0400 ... And then there's 'Jose'.� Unlike a local BVI radio man had the audacity to mention last week, this season is NOT over yet. The 14:00 intermediate update of TS 'Jose' has the center shifted more to the NNW as the hurricane hunters send in their initial reports: "EARLY REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM JOSE INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS REFORMED TO THE NORTH. AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE� 55.1 WEST OR ABOUT 305 MILES...490 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS." This brings Jose's track eerily close to hurricane Marilyn's path of 1995. Looking at the forecast track as of 11:00 this morning (10/18); Jose will be 130 miles south of St. Thomas coming Thursday morning at 04:00 as a Category 1 hurricane.� If, it stays on the forecast track!!! Listening to people this morning in the local marine community, many feel that Jose should not be a threat ("They always turn to the North") and that it's not fair to have come this far in the season and still have to live with the threat of a hurricane. But then again, Nature's never been one to conform to human wishes and or demands (luckily). On an ironic note; today is "Hurricane Thanksgiving Day" in the VI.� A holiday (!?!) where the people can give thanks that they have been spared this season from hurricanes. With this ("long-term"???) shift in the hurricane season, this date might have to be reconsidered for the upcoming years.� Case in point would be that "Hurricane Supplication Day" (pray to be spared for the upcoming hurricane season) in 1996 was held two weeks after Hurricane 'Bertha' waltzed right across the Virgin Islands!?! Plus; there is another well organized tropical wave behind TS 'Jose'.� Roughly 1425 miles East of the Lesser Antilles.� This system has the potential to become better organized over the next few days. All this, of course, if the upper outflow of TS 'Jose' doesn't wreak too much havoc by creating too much shear and subsidence (sinking air) over the trailing wave as this would limit the convection in the potential system. Time will tell. Herman [Image] � ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - TS Jose * From: "DAVID MCDERMOTT" * Date: Mon, 18 Oct 1999 12:43:58 -0300 It's never over till it's really over. This season has sure had it's weird moments where tropical systems are concerned. Dr. Gray may yet pull this off though I never really doubted him in the first place. Once September has passed, people get complacent. This year I believe will change those thoughts! TS Jose has deviated more towards the northwest and I believe will continue to do so. No one here in St. Thomas appears to be concerned with it as of yet. I am, albeit on a biased note. I am supposed to leave tomorrow for my sister's wedding! I hope this storm is taken seriously as it has spawned in an ominous area infamous for a few past storms in recent years. Dave ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Remnants of TD 12 deliver heavy rain... * From: Herman van der Heide * Date: Wed, 13 Oct 1999 10:46:18 -0400 ... Even though TD 12 did not materialize in the form of a tropical storm, the remnants of the depression have drifted over the USVI and delivered heavy rain this morning.� Local rain gauge showed 1.9 inches in the last three hours.� Nice lightning show started around 3:30 AM.� Haven't heard of any strikes on the island of St. Thomas itself, although the times between lightning and thunder were occasionally quite short. Radio reported this morning of some local schools closed due to the rains (muddy, flooding etc.) and this early morning the usual power outage plagued this side (SW) of the island as a result of the heavy rain.� However, the outage was of short duration and all is back to normal this morning. Solid overcast for another day(s?) in store as the upper atmosphere, in combination with the above mentioned remnants, create an unstable environment. So far the 1999 hurricane season has treated the USVI kindly and the outlook for the rest of the season is promising. However, the threat of tropical storms/hurricanes will never totally go away as one only has to remember tropical storm 'Klaus' in 1984 (early November) and the even more surprising/scaring Hurricane 'Lili' (middle December !!) of that same year. Especially when we keep in mind that Dr. Gray forecasted this year "LATE season hurricane activity"!! As a little info: - 'Klaus' started out North off Aruba/Bonaire and moved, as a tropical storm, NE towards Puerto Rico and the USVI on it's way to the Atlantic. - 'Lili' followed a reversed course in a a sense.� She started out NE off Bermuda, waltzed S, E, NE, N, W and finally south- west to settle on a course for Puerto Rico and the USVI.� Before arriving here however, the system had significantly weakened and didn't pack much of a punch anymore; rain being the only threat. I don't think George Orwell had these systems in mind when he wrote his famous book. � Today, following 'normal' climatology, we have a large area of disturbed weather (1008 mb low associated with it) in the western Caribbean Sea which has the potential to become a tropical depression later today (10/13). Local rain gauge now showing 2.2 inches.� Rain is not heavy anymore, more like a drizzle, but looking at the sky, this drizzle could go on all day.� At least the cisterns benefit from all this rain. Herman � ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Latest * From: "DAVID MCDERMOTT" * Date: Wed, 6 Oct 1999 09:19:57 -0300 Just when most people in the Caribbean thought with great sighs of relief they had dodged the hurricane bullet for this season, new threats appear on the horizon. Granted, one very far away and low (more cause for concern) and the other (newly formed TD-12) appearing already to track well northward. However, we all should know enough by now to not take appearances for granted. It has been an unusual hurricane season indeed. Most of St. Thomas probably isn't aware of TD-12 yet or that a possibility is brewing behind it to the south. It is a hot, humid morning and business is going at it's usual pace. At this time, all quiet here. Dave ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Tropical Rain * From: "DAVID MCDERMOTT" * Date: Wed, 29 Sep 1999 21:29:13 -0300 St. Thomas went through a dry spell for a while after Hurricane Gert passed by to the North. This was good as to let the ground dry out some. Yesterday, there was some significant rainfall, although for the good as it came down slowly for a few hours here in St. Thomas. St. Croix had heftier downpours and subsequent flooding in some low-lying areas. A wave, which has potential for development, is moving through the lower Windward Islands Trinidad, Tobago, Barbados, St. Vincent, etc... and is moving WNW. We have an 80% chance of heavy rain on Friday as this wave moves our way. No one here in the VI needs a reminder of the birth area of Marilyn and Bertha. Not an alarmist point; just a reminder that the season is not over yet and we need to keep watch as the potential areas for development move closer to the islands. For our friends in North Carolina, hang in there. Our prayers are with you. I have a very good friend in Charlotte and I hope she is ok. Dave ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Gert * From: "DAVID MCDERMOTT" * Date: Tue, 14 Sep 1999 12:26:53 -0300 Despite Gert's projected path after the 11:00 am advisory which brings it north of the US Virgin Islands, some residents are taking this threat seriously, it's good to say. We had another heavy downpour late yesterday afternoon, a final gesture from Floyd's tail. The island is the greenest and tropical looking I've ever seen in 10 years. That's the good part. Gert still has the potential to turn more westerly again if Floyd's long-ranging influence dies out or the ridge to the north strengthens again. Not much information is being passed along via TV as all attention is on Floyd, and rightly so at this moment. Residents of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina really need to heed and prepare. This is not funny and those who like to attend "hurricane parties" only have to look at a certain hurricane (Camille?) which struck in 1969 and left nothing of a 3 story building where a party was going on. Some are preparing here but most are waiting until tomorrow afternoon. I still state my case on the lack of up-to-date information and attention from the mainland concerning here. The redundancy of information concerning Floyd can be replaced, even for 2-3 minutes, by that same up-to-date information and attention for here. After all, we are a part of the United States. Our name is The United States Virgin Islands. Example: The 8:50 am Tropical Update never mentioned us or Hurricane Gert. It might as well had been the Hurricane Floyd update! The 9:50 am Tropical update gave approxiamately 20-30 seconds of Gert graphic and that was it. Not many people here have computers or access and depend on this channel and radio for their updates. I'm not taking anything away from the coverage of dangerous Hurricane Floyd; we here in the islands just deserve some coverage also. Good luck to all in Floyd's path. Be safe and God Bless. Dave ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Floyd's tail and Gert's growth * From: "DAVID MCDERMOTT" * Date: Mon, 13 Sep 1999 08:43:11 -0300 Good morning. The light show from the tail feeder band of Floyd was the most impressive and dangerous one I have ever seen here. The area where I live lost power as of approx. 5:00 am and has still not returned yet. There were numerous lighting strikes in Pillsbury Sound and the communications tower in front of my house appeared to take a stunning direct hit. On the way to work, there were numerous problems of ponding water, small tree limbs down, and pavement ripped up by the force of running water. A sad aspect is all of the sediment and other run-off which is contributing to the slow death of our coral reefs. Gert should be a hurricane by later today. She bears intense scrutiny as the subtropical ridge above him/her will keep it mostly west for the next 72 hours. This puts it too close for comfort. Good luck to those in Florida and farther up the east coast. Floyd is a very dangerous storm and should be heeded as such. Since Floyd is threatening the mainland, I see coverage in our area has decreased once again. Shouldn't The Weather Channel at least expand it's tropical updates? The same information is repeated constantly so there is room for some expansion into our area when a potential threat is out there. Take care! Dave ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Floyd * From: "DAVID MCDERMOTT" * Date: Fri, 10 Sep 1999 12:49:06 -0300 Good afternoon. It appears Floyd will head Northwest of the Virgin Islands as well as the rest of the Northernmost islands but we must still keep on our guard nevertheless. An update on the boater situation: They now have the ok to seek safe haven although the notice is extremely short. An article in yesterdays (September 9th) Daily News quotes PNR Cchief of Enforcement Lucia Roberts as saying "She doesn't feel Floyd poses any threat" and that "people are panicking for no reason". What if it turns more west? It's too bad that someone (possibly) without a degree in Meteorology and years of hurricane experience can feel confident to say these things. Hurricanes Marilyn and Dennis come to mind as far as not acting as experienced forecasters predicted, even with the help of state-of-the-art computer models. Her disregard for Mother Nature and it's power is endemic of how this territories government treat potential problems in the first place. Anyway, the attitude here is complacent for the moment. we expect some gusty winds up about 25-30 mph tonight and tomorrow with heavy rain spells likely. The island is looking greener than it has in a long time. A truely pretty tropical paradise as seen in most brochures. Attention also should be paid to a possible forming depression around the lower lattitudes, 8 degrees N. Very interesting wind patterns are forecast for the next 5 days. Take care and God Bless All. Dave ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - updates * From: "The Investigating Reporter" * Date: Thu, 9 Sep 1999 20:59:17 -0300 VITEMA by Gene J.P. Walker-State Director, VITEMA Although Tropical Storm Floyd appears to be taking a north westerly path and is expected to pass some 300 miles north east of St. Thomas by 8:00 PM Friday , VITEMA is requesting that Virgin Islands residents continue to monitor the storm for any sudden changes. We are also asking our residents to continue to take the necessary precautionary measures. Residents of the Virgin Islands should continue to monitor their local radio and television stations for the latest information and most importantly, listen to the latest advisories from VITEMA. Governor Charles W. Turnbull has been kept informed of the latest developments and he has requested that all residents take heed of the advisories and make the necessary preparations. We have been informed by the National Weather Service in San Juan that the Hurricane Hunters will be dispatching an aircraft into the center of the storm so that an accurate assessment can be made. Additional updates will be provided as the storm progresses. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Floyd * From: "DAVID MCDERMOTT" * Date: Thu, 9 Sep 1999 10:16:23 -0300 Good morning. Everything is calm here in St. Thomas at the moment with the exception of the local boating community. Some of them wanted to move their boats to safe havens like "Hurricane Hole" but the Department of Planning and Natural Resources won't let them yet. (As of last night.) This has caused considerable consternation as many, and rightly so, feel they will not have enough time to secure their boats in the safest areas should Floyd turn more westerly and/or pick up speed. Two small articles appear in the Daily News but nothing different than you could pick up on The Weather Channel. Many of us feel The Weather Channel does not devote enough time to us here in the US Virgin Islands. If there are strong possiblities we could get hit, I do not see them sending down correspondents for "live reports" like they have been doing for the mainland; latest example is coverage of Dennis. As Floyd continues to strengthen, we should all be prepared for the possibility of nature not listening to the forecasters. Dennis was one of the best examples of this. Not too many hurricanes go backwards! Good luck to all. Dave ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Emily * From: "DAVID MCDERMOTT" * Date: Wed, 25 Aug 1999 21:00:35 -0300 Good evening! Once again, we are entering the "high" time of the hurricane season. There were alot of skeptics as far into the season as Aug. 10th; Many from around the Caribbean as to the potential validity of Dr. Gray's forecast for this hurricane season. A very quiet lead-up. Unfortunately, this has led many to be lulled to sleep. Here on St. Thomas, Emily, among the populace, has not created much of a stir. I do not believe they realize the potential seriousness of this situation. Most are able to only listen to the radio for coordinates; Watch the Weather Channel for it's 30-second (it seems) focus on us (a United States territory); or read the Daily News, which does not appear to always have the most current news. Tomorrow's weather updates will be the key. Hurricane's Marilyn and Bertha spawned in similar areas. Marilyn, an under-estimated monster for such a small, compact storm. Bertha, virtually undistinguished here by virtue of Marilyn's impact. I hope and pray the government here, which has been monitoring Emily and Cindy, are much more prepared and will react quicker, in the event of landfall. Good luck and God Bless all. Dave ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- | Back to top | Home | Hurricane Guide | QHWRL | 1998 Sea